Trans people, we must prepare for the worst.

We, the transgender community in America, are in grave danger.

If you aren't trans, or if you haven't been focused on trans activist circles, you may not be aware of how bad things are. That's okay. It's not your fault. The system, plain and simple, isn't set up to care about trans people. But the ghastly facts speak for themselves.

We aren't talking "keeping trans women out of women's sports" (though that's bad enough). We aren't talking "don't let trans kids transition" (though that's horrific and traumatic). We're talking "trying to pass a bill to allow jailing a trans woman for six months for using the ladies' room."

Read that again: Six months in jail, for using a public bathroom. The proposed bill as posted on Utah’s government website would have made it possible to define certain uses of sex-segregated bathrooms by certain trans people as a class B misdemeanor; the max penalty for a class B misdemeanor is six months in jail. (For a longer explanation, see Appendix A.)

When I started writing this post, that particular Utah "misdemeanor bathroom use" bill had just passed the House, overwhelmingly; here’s the voting record. Luckily, the “trans bathroom use is a misdemeanor” part was edited out a day or so later (but then, a day later, a ban on trans public bathroom use was added again). However, even without the criminal penalties, plenty of other awful things remained: A youth trans bathroom ban. A legal end to state recognition of trans identities affecting much of Utah law. A changing room trans ban.

And that's just one bill. In 2023, there were a record 591 bills introduced, across 49 states (the odd one out was Delaware.) 86 of these bills passed. Every one of them makes the lives of trans people and their loved ones worse, very much on purpose; some have the potential to end lives. That seems to be intentional, of course. As we all know by now, "the cruelty is the point."

It gets worse. As of January 20, less than 3 weeks into the new year, there were already 321 anti-trans bills proposed for the 2024 legislative year. This is over 50% of the total number of bills proposed across all of 2023, and, again, that was just by January 20.

These sorts of bills have life-altering consequences for trans people. Just one example: By one estimate, 80% of adult trans healthcare in Florida has been eliminated. Other bills have made it illegal for some trans women to use the ladies' room, or for some trans men to use the men's room. Again, picking on Florida because it's probably the worst of the worst, read about this fresh hell: 'Felt like prey': Bathrooms more unsafe under new Florida law, trans people say.

Put plainly, the goal of all these cruel laws is to legislate trans people out of existence. This has led to an internal refugee crisis where an estimated 130,000 to 260,000 trans people have already fled from trans-hostile states. Sometimes, people have fled from one state (say, Florida) to another state (say, Utah), only to have that new state also pursue transphobic legislation after their arrival.

But, since we've been on this pain train since 2016: It, again, gets worse. What do you think will happen if Trump gets elected--which he seems to have somewhere around a 50/50 chance of doing, per current polls? I'll tell you what will happen: Republicans will start trying to pass these laws on a federal level.

Don't think it could happen? Most of us didn't think they could gut Roe v Wade, but that happened. Hell, most of us didn't think Trump could get elected, and that definitely happened (thanks again, Electoral College). Quite simply, given the massive year-over-year rise in anti-trans lawmaking and the high priority that red state Republicans are placing on this wave of bigotry (we see you, Ohio!), there's a snowball's chance in hell that Republicans won't try to push for anti-trans legislation on a federal level if Trump wins. It'll happen. The only questions are "how fast," "how hard," and "how much will they succeed." At the federal level, at a bare minimum, you can bet that gender-affirming care on Medicare, Medicaid, and possibly ACA plans will be on the chopping block.

The election is in under ten months. The next President will be inaugurated in under a year. We have to plan NOW.

What, then, can we do?

The first thing we can (and should) do is to be aware of the problem. Reading this article is a good start, but awareness is an ongoing process; new laws are proposed on a weekly or daily basis. Follow reputable trans rights activists. Follow LGBT and trans activist efforts in red states, and support LGBT activist charities with trans-focused programs, like the Campaign for Southern Equality's "Southern Trans Youth Emergency Project.”

The second thing we can do is to assess our personal risk level. If laws pass in your city, your state, or federally, how screwed are you? That's a big question, but possibly the best estimator is this handy map. Although that map tracks the estimated risk of bad laws passing at all, it's a fairly safe bet that the map of "how much danger would you be in if they pass" would be broadly similar. Risk assessment is a complex issue, though, and I will address it in a future post. Importantly: Please don't be lulled into a false sense of safety if you live in a blue city or even a blue state. Federal law trumps state, state trumps local, and if a nasty transphobic law comes down the pike, your local government will be inclined to follow it. When Texas banned abortion, abortion services in true blue Austin shut down in a finger-snap. There is a lesson in this: You cannot count on the nearby government to protect you from the far-away government.

The third thing we can do is to make a personal survival plan. Let's say you're a trans woman, you've changed your name and sex on your IDs, and Trump gets elected. Trump then signs an executive order invalidating "F" gender markers on trans women's passports. Maybe he tries for the same on Real ID compliant state licenses. What do you--and, if applicable, your family--do? Do you have the resources to move to another state? To another country? How painful would it be if you had to detransition, at least outside home? These are terrible questions, but things are bad enough now that we need to start thinking about them.

A quick note (TW: self-harm): Despite the fact that things are bad, and could get worse, "Suicide" is never the answer; in fact, it's also precisely what the bigots want from us. There are still plenty of ways to survive--maybe even thrive. You need to start thinking about the least-bad options available to you. What those options are, and how to choose, is a huge topic which will be addressed in a future post. There's no one-size-fits-all answer. But we can, and will, survive.

One additional thing we can do is to recognize that existing charities are not doing enough. In fact, it's probable that they can't do enough. Relocating hundreds of thousands of trans people nationwide is a massive logistical problem, which would be a challenge even with the assets of a state, a nation, or a megacorp--and no state, nation, or megacorp is stepping up to bat. Even the big "LGBT" charities aren't doing much. HRC's page on relocating trans people is a sad little listicle of mostly new, small, and relatively unknown charities. The intentions of these groups are laudable, but they aren't big enough or well-funded enough to solve the problem.

If we as trans people are to survive in the age of transphobic policy, we cannot wait for others to save us. We must save ourselves.

This won't be the last entry in this blog. It's going to be a long year, and there will be a lot to talk about. For now, my best advice is this: First, run--don't walk--to www.erininthemorning.com, and subscribe to Erin's email newsletter. She's been doing a wonderful job of arming the trans community with knowledge about the ongoing transphobic laws being passed. They're going to get worse, and we must prepare. Knowledge is power, and in this political climate it is of paramount importance. What you don’t know about can still ruin your life.

Naturally, this is a lot to take in. Take a deep breath, do something nice for yourself, and--when you're ready--start writing your plan. What will you do if the state bans you from using public restrooms? What will you do if the state cuts off your access to hormones or surgery? What will you do if the state undoes the change to your sex marker on your ID? What will you do if the state tries to force you to detransition to participate in your job (particularly relevant for teachers and other jobs which involve the care of children)? All of this, and more, could happen, at the state or federal level. Now you're aware of the danger. Start planning your response now, just in case. These are dangerous times, and we cannot afford to be caught unaware.

Stay safe out there.

Yours in trans solidarity, ~Lexi~

"Action is the only remedy to indifference: the most insidious danger of all" — Elie Wiesel